Imagine the heartbreak of nearly tasting victory, only to watch it slip away— and then having to settle for scraps in the draft lottery. That's the bitter pill the Cincinnati Reds are swallowing after their 2026 MLB Draft draw, evoking painful memories for fans who recall past disappointments. But here's where it gets controversial: does this low pick doom them to another bust, or could it be the hidden gem that turns the tide? Let's dive into the story and see why this pick has Reds supporters on edge.
For squads that fumble in the postseason, the disappointment of dashed playoff dreams is often amplified by a mediocre draft slot. They weren't dreadful enough to clinch a top lottery position (as explained in MLB's odds for the 2026 Draft here: https://www.mlb.com/news/odds-for-2026-mlb-draft-lottery), nor were they stellar enough to hoist a championship trophy. This year, while certain franchises are buzzing with excitement over their elevated chances in the 2026 Draft lottery at this week's Winter Meetings (check out the key dates for Reds fans: https://blogredmachine.com/key-offseason-dates-free-agency-draft-lottery-reds-fans-need-to-know-right-now), the Reds, who were convincingly defeated by the eventual winners, the Los Angeles Dodgers, are left with the No. 18 overall selection as their small reward.
This isn't the first time the Reds have landed this deep in the first round—excluding Cam Collier's 18th pick in 2022. The previous instance was in 2014, when they chose Nick Howard, a prospect from the University of Virginia at No. 19. Interestingly, that draft followed right on the heels of the Reds' playoff appearance in 2013, mirroring the current scenario.
What does this modest first-round selection hold for Cincinnati? It could be a game-changer or a total letdown.
Howard was an imposing relief pitcher coming off a standout year with a 1.91 ERA. He racked up 20 saves as UVA's closer and played a key role in guiding the Cavaliers to the College World Series Finals, where they were edged out by Vanderbilt. Both Howard and the Reds were optimistic that his success would translate seamlessly to professional baseball.
Sadly, Howard's journey to the big leagues (read more on his minor league path: https://www.mlb.com/news/nick-howard-reds-2022-minor-league-camp) was riddled with injuries and obstacles. Most alarmingly, the right-hander succumbed to the dreaded 'yips'—a mental block that made throwing strikes nearly impossible (detailed in this Reds analysis: https://blogredmachine.com/posts/reds-first-round-draft-pick-nick-howard-biggest-bust-team-history). After a promising debut with Dayton and the Arizona Fall League in 2014, Howard's control vanished overnight. By 2016, his walks per nine innings skyrocketed to 14, and he struggled to regain his form.
In 2022, his last season with the Reds, a 29-year-old Howard had a bloated 2.925 WHIP and allowed 16.9 hits per nine innings at Triple-A, with his walk rate still a staggering 9.5 BB/9. The Reds cut ties with him in late May, after which he joined the York Revolution in independent leagues and made a short-lived attempt at revival in the Atlanta Braves' system. Released in July 2023, he hasn't returned to pro ball since. For beginners wondering what 'WHIP' means, it's Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched—a stat that measures a pitcher's control and ability to prevent baserunners; a lower number is better, and his high figures highlight just how much his mechanics deteriorated.
To rub salt in the wound, the Reds can reflect on the talents picked right after Howard in 2014: stars like Matt Chapman, Jack Flaherty, Alex Verdugo, Spencer Turnbull, and Mitch Keller. These players went on to have solid MLB careers, making Howard's underperformance all the more glaring. And this is the part most people miss: is it fair to blame the scouting team entirely, or did external factors like injuries play a bigger role? In 10 years, fingers crossed, we'll be celebrating the achievements of whoever the Reds grab at No. 18 (for a sneak peek at early mocks: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25239528-brs-way-too-early-2026-mlb-mock-draft-all-30-teams) rather than lamenting the missed opportunities of those who followed.
But let's stir the pot a bit: some fans argue that low picks can lead to unexpected successes, like how the Dodgers turned bargain basement finds into winners. Is the Reds' strategy too risk-averse, or should they gamble big on potential? What do you think—will this draft pick haunt them like Howard, or become a legendary steal? Share your thoughts in the comments below; do you agree that past failures predict future troubles, or is there hope for a fresh start?
